WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 200.46

+6.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Steve 667 who wrote (25744)	4/30/2004 12:38:35 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (3) of 60323

Steve, I don't think the trailing P/E matters. The question is in the next quarter or two can they spur the demand for flash again? Else there will be a glut in the Flash memory market because both Samsung and Toshiba will have a tremendous boost in their manufacturing capacity because of migration to 90nm processes. They have to be able to unload this production into the consumers hands on a continual basis. The consumers can delay, procrastinate for days and weeks to buy something yet the factories have to keep producing the chips to a decent utilization level of the plant to recover the cost of the plant over a given number of years. Last few quarters the demand was exploding and they couldn't manufacture enough, now they are able to produce enough and will produce even more but the incremental demand growth seems to be slowing as consumer is not willing to buy the higher end products unless they find good deals! If one looks at it objectively from an institutional portfolio manager's point of view- based on fundamentals, the best case scenario for SNDK is to return 50% in the next 6-9 months. If they have stocks in the new sectors (because of sector rotation due to higher interest rates in the coming months) which will go up in the next 6-9 months and can return higher they will dump SNDK and go after new ideas. And based on technicals, this stock's chart is completely messed-up and looking sick :-( Although it seems like someone big has been getting out of SNDK all week and today they sold whatever they had leftover in the first hour of trading. If this stock went into strong hands for the long haul we will see a rebound to some extent. If some others decide to get out also, we see another decline in the coming days to below 20. Just my 2 cents. Regards, -Pam

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