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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (12962)	4/30/2004 3:39:43 PM
From: ild	of 110194

Date: Fri Apr 30 2004 14:57 trotsky (Quark@China) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved absolutely correct, but nevertheless, the current phase of the boom ( the 'sub-bubble', if you will ) has very disturbing characteristics in terms of credit creation and likely malinvestment. so it will go bust one of these days, only i think not just yet. you only have to look in the distant past of other capitalist economies to realize that in spite of a 'low base' and the need to install infrastructure, etc. on a vast scale, periodic painful busts are a natural feature. the US in the 19th century had several financial panics and economic busts that were quite onerous at the time. the long term view is iow distinct from the shorter to medium term bubbles and busts that develop along the way. Date: Fri Apr 30 2004 14:50 trotsky (Homestake@proof of gold buying) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you'll NEVER get any of that, except perhaps in hindsight ( e.g. we know NOW that Arab speculators were big gold and silver buyers in the late 70's bubble ) . the reason is that this is probably the least transparent major financial market - and indeed, why would a big gold buyer or seller want anyone to know that he's buying/selling? only central banks have a tendency to announce gold sales ( but never buys ) beforehand, as they have a vested interest in gold staying 'tame'. but they don't tell you anything else, now do they? for instance, no-one knows for sure how much of their gold they have lent out - they're not telling. just as no-one knows who has bought all that gold - we only know that SOMEONE must have. so the proof you would like to see will never be forthcoming. one of the reasons why wealthy individuals invest in gold is the legendary discretion of the market, and the anonymity it entails. however, neither the Swiss CB, nor the BoE ever had trouble finding buyers ( whose identity has in large part remained secret - only GFI and AU once admitted to bidding at a BoE auction to cover some hedges ) .

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