<huge dollar short position that is about to be squeezed.>
A huge dollar short has already been squeezed . Just looking at the FX subtotal on the Comex
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the specs were long currencies (short the dollar) 257,133 futures w/options on Feb. 17. Now it's only 8,196, nothing left to squeeze.
On the big commodity longs, here are the numbers before Wednesday's big flush.
Gold: spec long 225,609 on 4-6, Tuesday 4/27: 125,599, over 110,000 spec sold in three weeks is pretty unprecedented, plus Wed's dump.
Copper: peak was long 44,487 on 2/17 (near $1.40), 4/27 was 15,410, big price drop Wed.
Silver: Even silver which seems to have a permanent commercial short (as we've discussed): 4-6 spec long 96,962, 4/27 was 74,658.
Energy still has a very large spec long position of 234,525, so be careful.
Grains subtotal: A bunch of specs were flushed out here too, 416,460 on 3-30 to 306,111 now.
Here's a biggie: Specs were long 120,275 of the 5/10/30 bond subtotal 0n Feb. 24, now they are short 260,340 as of 4/27. Look at the swing in Eurodollars, specs long 242,932 in 1-20, are now short 476,628.
Specs are now long 28,756 of SPX-subgroup.
I have to conclude that 1. the USD starts to weaken again 2. commodity prices firm and/or strengthen. 3. there's a bond rally in the short run. 4. stock market is generally weak.
Sounds like bad economic news is coming to me. |
