Steve168,
Just my opinion, but your model and your approach are too risky for my appetite. I know that at some point you said you were looking for investors --- I would be very careful applying this approach to other people's money. You are buying and shorting extremely volatile stocks based on very short term factors. Mechanized technical models are quite risky if used by themselves on volatile stocks, and markets can change such that a mechanized model that has worked well for years may no longer work in the future.
Stocks may be overvalued right now, but the basic value approach has proven time and time again to work. Black box approaches to investing have proven time and time again to blow up.
Your market calls seem to have been basically right so far aside from a glitch or two (for example, your model was short term bullish on Feb 5 and the market dropped from there), so maybe you will prove me wrong. I actually tend to agree with you that tech stocks are overvalued (I thought they were when you were still touting ALVR), but I am not going to short them --- I like to sleep well at night, and I can do that with value investing.
Not trying to discourage you, just trying to provide a word of advice ...
MC
PS: In addition to my personal value investing, I work separately for a hedge fund. We short stocks, but would never take naked short positions like you are considering, trying to predict the market. |
