Yiwu, << think for sure 0.5 % raise on loan, not sure whether it will higher or not>>
... progressively higher, until the flames of speculation is snuffed out, the monkeys learn a lesson from the killing of the chickens, and all is well again at 8% growth (instead of double digits), until the lesson must be re-taught.
The reaction elsewhere may become exaggerated, and if so, we then must do what we must do, answerable to our god and ourselves.
A friend is the chairman/ceo of a Beijing-based credit guarantee company that has important shareholders with the necessary clout to collect and the required backing to delay paying [EDIT: in other words, a competitive advantage in a robber holding up a thief world], and he said:
(a) A guy who had structured badly, has three buildings worth RMB 1 bil under one title, has the asset frozen by the bank, for want of RMB 80 million cash. Now he cannot sell, and as the real estate cools, the buildings go stale. The guy is willing to part with RMB 30 mm equity in exchange for RMB 80 mm cash immediate infusion. The RMB 80 mm will be on priority payback as the then freed buildings are sold off.
I dunno. The deals may get sweeter still as the blood gets more plentiful, infused with heightened levels of adrenalin herbs and increased quantity of anxiety spices.
Besides, I am reminded of Mary's admonition, that we must not gain by others loss.
(b) My friend believes the next three years is a time to work diligently, applying ourselves to the problems at hand, for the deal flow will require close analysis and swift action.
I observe that events must mean to get much worse when the carrion birds get organized for sustained patrols and systematic looting.
(c) My friend is trying to tempt me to get an apartment in Beijing, and situate myself in the metaphorical backyard adjoining the figurative kitchen, where the preparation of the game meat will take place.
I therefore think events will likely get gruesome, and like a kid, I am fascinated by the ... well, let me not say anymore, less I be accused of being a pessimistic this, disgusting that, and worse others.
I am considering ‘what to do about what to do’.
My hesitation is on several levels, one of which is the sort of people the looting is necessarily from.
Of course, I happen to think that the China smack will be merely the lead act to the US smash.
Chugs, Jay |
