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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Neocon who wrote (130686)5/1/2004 1:35:29 AM
From: SirRealist  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
And Neocon, as was evident in 2000, it's the polling in the swing states where the electoral votes are, that matter.

If the latest polls in each are spot on, Bush would lead by 2 votes more than his last win, but 8 states (including 3 of the 7 largest by population) have Bush & Kerry within 2% of each other.

Unlike previous elections, 85% have already made their choice and only a serious event or runaway momo could budge them. They compete for the other 15%, who are about 9% independents, 3% Dems and 3% GOP.

Anyone calling a race this tight so soon is only guessing. Bush got a temporary spike from a huge ad buy. In the 59 days of daily tracking, no candidate has led in the Rasmussen Poll outside of the margin of error.

Bush may have an edge on those two issues, but they trust Kerry to have the best ketchup.
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