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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (12984)5/1/2004 11:11:43 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Energy still has a very large spec long position of 234,525, so be careful.

what is your feeling about why there has not been a flush in energy, as there has been in the other commodities? in my own simplistic fashion, it seems the speculation is all in the near months as the far-month contracts do not budge and, e.g., in oil, remain 10 dollars or more below the front month. it seems these far contracts are not good for specs, as they are too illiquid. but i guess they, too, could be subject to a drawdown in the event of an energy crash. but at least they already have 10 dollars of price cushion vs the spot. also, it seems to me the backwardation must point to a certain negative sentiment regarding energies, the heavy front month specs notwithstanding
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