Hi Sarmad Y. Hermiz; Re: "I had been wondering why the Shiia have been so complacent. I think now I know. Their religious leaders are all on the payroll of the US."
I think this is highly unlikely. Look at the accomplishments of the Bush administration. I think that you are crediting them with being far more intelligent than they actually are.
I think that a more realistic explanation for the Shiite rebellion delay includes the following:
(a) From a military point of view: The Shiites really didn't like Saddam much, so they weren't as pissed off right from the start. This meant that jittery CPA soldiers, at first, didn't shoot as many people in their neighborhoods, so their anger took longer to rise up. In addition, since it was not expected that the Shiite regions would cause problems, fewer CPA forces were stationed there, so there was naturally fewer opportunities for jittery soldiers to shoot civilians.
(b) From a political point of view: The Shiites are the majority in Iraq, so as long as it is reasonable to expect that the US truly will implement a Democracy, they were more inclined to wait for that time. If an insurgency throws the Americans out, then it is not unlikely that another dictator from the Sunni areas, which are those parts of Iraq where the military training and talent are concentrated, would take over. The soporific effect of this hope died away as US promises kept being postponed, but it takes time to organize a guerilla force, so the Shiites were late to the party.
(c) From a religious point of view: It is said that the Shiites expect the political leaders of a country to be debased, so there may be less of an inclination to fight against them. I really don't believe that this is true or false as I do not know enough about it. The viewpoint is espoused in the article I recently linked in (but did not quote the relevant passages) here: #reply-20058187
(d) From a leadership point of view: The Shiites had no real political leader, while the Sunnis had Saddam. This meant that the Sunnis had a more direct connection to an anti-US campaign. Furthermore, the religious leaders the Shiites did have were inclined to avoid getting into politics. I've seen Sistani's website, and he mostly talks about what kinds of foods are okay to eat and other religious, as opposed to political or military, topics. This lack of leadership meant that the Shiites were slow to organize for guerilla war.
By the way, before the war I repeatedly stated that the guerilla war would take some time to build up in Iraq. This is because, historically, guerilla warfare usually doesn't get going strong for some time until after an occupation begins.
It takes time to organize a rebellion. Expecting people to just spontaneously take up arms is unrealistic. Humans are pack animals and most require a leader to lead them to a fight. Just getting the leaders figured out is part of the delay in guerilla fighting.
And there is another reason for the delay, and that is that men who have just been defeated really aren't that much inclined to repeat the experience. It takes a while for the feeling of anger to build up to the point where it overcomes the feeling of fear.
-- Carl |
