From Janes:
Iraq: Syria's dangerous game
Amid reports of 'terrorist attacks' close to foreign embassies and international agencies in Damascus, a JID correspondent reports from the Middle East on the mounting crisis facing Syria in the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq.
From the outset, the Ba'ath Party regime in Damascus feared that after Iraq, the Bush administration might decide upon a policy of 'regime change' towards Syria. The US administration has long accused the Syrian regime of supporting Saddam loyalists by sending military equipment to Iraq. Damascus also stands accused of allowing Arab fighters to cross the border to fight coalition forces in Iraq. However, the most potent charges focus on Syrian support for militant Islamic groups such as Hizbullah and Hamas, as well as allegations that the regime has already acquired weapons of mass destruction.
Recent disclosures that point to the Bush administration beginning its preparations for the invasion of Iraq soon after the war in Afghanistan started, as well as the Pentagon's recent decision to place Lebanon and Syria under the US Central Command led by General John Abuzaid, have further fuelled anxiety in Damascus.
At the same time, the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad also faces the challenge of containing a domino effect in the region. The prospect of eventual democracy in Iraq is starting to have an impact on the Syrian domestic scene. Even before the recent violence in Damascus, JID's local sources have been stressing that there is a growing sense in Syria that the Ba'ath regime may be challenged.
Opponents of the Syrian leadership are stepping up their efforts to promote an agenda of political liberalisation in the country. Recent unrest between ethnic Kurds and Syrian security forces in the northeastern region has further raised concerns that Iraqi Kurdish ambitions for self-rule could foster an uprising among Syria's own Kurdish minority.
In recent weeks, the Ba'athist regime has shown an unusual degree of openness and flexibility in dealing with its domestic political opponents. Moreover, although openly opposed to the US administration's plan to promote democratic reform throughout the Middle East, Syria is actively advocating its own version, which is based on what is being defined as 'Arab culture and values'. |
