Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Rarebird who wrote (285898)	5/2/2004 9:57:56 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) of 436258

I have to have another stab at this - and draw an analogy. I knew for a fact early in 1999 that the markets were going to keel over and suffer big time. Big, big time. My net profit from the market that year would have been much greater had I parked what I knew aside and simply traded nimbly and with protection. Instead I spend a lot of time waiting for stock specific issues to creep up so I could short them. It was satisfying but occasionally painful work. Would have been much easier for me to just wait until the keeling over begain and then apply my strong sense of the outcome. I did "ok" through 99 but I'll never take that approach - pissing in the wind, swimming upstream, whatever you want to call it - again. Its better to stand aside in fact than fight the current. So it is with Gold today. While it may run and run strong eventually, eventually (as we saw with how long it took the last mega bubble to break) can take a long time. Perhaps this explains my rationale more clearly than any chart will.

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