CHART UPDATE 5-01-04
SOMETHING EVIL THIS WAY COMES
In this update I will be relying heavily on candlestick charting, which I have been reviewing this weekend and particularly the formation called “Three Black Crows”. See the following post for an explanation. As always these are my views as of the moment and subject to change whenever, I think the charts are saying something different.
Message 20082288
The next posts provide what I think may be an explanation for what the charts are saying.
investorshub.com
Message 20085115
Message 20085078
My summary on gold is basically that something has occurred this month in the gold market that has changed the market for at least the intermediate term. The chart evidence is overwhelming.
GOX – Gold Index
Weekly
On the weekly chart we see the first of many Three Black Crow formations (3bc) the number of these that appear in the pm sector on the weekly charts is astonishing and reinforces the bear case.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
I don’t see much chance for relief on the daily charts, which again show a pattern, which is repeating itself. i.e. several bear flags and another in formation. While there is support at 70, if it doesn’t hold we are headed to at least 60.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
HUI
Weekly
3dc again
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
H&S breakout projects to 168, but next real support about 10 points below around 158.
XAU
Weekly
3dc
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
H&S top with objective already met. In a support area.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Gold
Weekly
This is ugly. Not only do we have the dreaded 3bc, but a double top, which has completed and projects to 350.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
In a support area which could give some short-term relief before the carnage continues.
ABX
Weekly
Again the dreaded 3bc and a double top in place on a decisive break of 19 which projects to 15.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Terrible chart. The gap at 20 could be a measuring gap, which projects to 16.
NEM
Daily
If it breaks support at 32-33 going lower still
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Weekly
Again Dreaded 3 black crows
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
There are many other gold charts displaying similar characteristics. I believe that at least a intermediate term top is in place and while there will be good trading opportunities for the nimble, I would not look for long term trades at least until we see some consolidation.
Now lets turn to Silver
SILVER
Weekly
Some hope for oversold rally. The last candlestick looks promising, if tomorrow is a good up day, but it is going to 5 in my opinion.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
PAAS
Weekly
Deadly 3dc no real support until 10.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
Hurts to look 200-day mva and oversold, so maybe a bounce.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Also I have access to media general charts and those listed below are very similar to gold and silver. It looks like the whole mining sector is swooning.
Media General
MG 130 Metals and Mining
MG 130 Steel and Iron
MG 132 Copper
MG 133 Aluminum
MG 135 Gold
MG 136 Silver
Natural Gas
Weekly
Picture less clear here, the downtrend could be over, but look at macd and RSI from the recent lows at 5. They are not confirming
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Daily
NO comment
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
XNG
Daily MACD and RSI not confirming- EVERYONE IS BULLISH ON NG. Could they be wrong, or will the positive between the gas stocks and NG prevail.
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Weekly
No Comment
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
FSNGX
Daily – I included this chart because it more clearly shows the negative divergence with RSI and MACD has crossed over.
stockcharts.com
Weekly
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Dow Jones Oil Company Index
Daily look at macd crossover
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Weekly are we headed for 3bc
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
OIX
Daily
Look at strong non-confirmation of RSI and MACD
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Weekly no comment
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
US indexes
NDX bearish engulfing formations yesterday and at recent top.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Russell 3000
Bearish engulfing formations yesterday and at recent top.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Russell 1000 near duplicate
As is Wilshire
SP-500 bearish engulfing formations yesterday and at recent top.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
European top 100 bearish engulfing formations yesterday and at recent top.
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Hang Seng Weekly terrible
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Japan index Last chart is bearish engulfing
stockcharts.com[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Mexican- Awful
stockcharts.com
Conclusion-
Something important has occurred. Whatever it is, it is bearish for gold, silver, most of the major stock markets, bonds (which I did not discuss, but many posters on SI have well documented the increasing yields and decreasing bond prices), maybe oil and gas. Is the situation in China a lot worse than we know? Does the Fed want to clamp down on liquidity? They are walking a tightrope and one misstep could blow up the economy. My best guess is that the markets are saying expect worldwide monetary restraint. My suspicion is that this will so adversely affect the fragile world economy that the money presses will print again. Until we reach that point, I am short or out.
Little joe |
