Hi FaultLine; Re: "Yes. the overthrow of Saddam has, to some extent, unleashed Pandora's box.. But that was a box that was destined to open itself far more explosively at some point down the road. And I get the sense that some of these people complaining now, would be complaining then about how we did nothing to prevent that inevitable anarchy."
I have access to that alternative world, the one where we left Saddam in power. So I don't have to make self-satisfying fantasies about what happened if we had not invaded.
It turned out that in that alternate world, the UN inspectors found no WMDs and gave Iraq a clean bill of health. The sanctions were removed from Iraq, and the place began improving its oil facilities. The economy there steadily improved for the next 5 years. As their economy improved, the attraction of radical Islam slowly faded away, and Iraq followed Algeria in turning back to the West. The absence of conflict reduced the natural human need for a "strong leader", and as Saddam got older, he began turning power to the country over to the Iraqi parliament. That parliament, at first, was strictly Baathist, but approximately 15 years from now, Iraq turned into a secular democracy, with Islamic, Baathist and other parties represented.
There never was a civil war.
Oh, and in addition, US standing in the Middle East, while kind of rough, was much better than it is in this world. Because of the extra troops and money available, the situation in Afghanistan was stabilized as well.
-- Carl |
