SIA to Raise IC Forecast Despite Drop in Fab Utilization
Silicon Strategies
05/03/2004, 1:15 PM ET
SAN JOSE, Calif.--The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) plans to raise its IC forecast for 2004 despite a possible drop in worldwide fab-capacity utilization in the first quarter of this year.
Previously, the SIA said the semiconductor industry would grow by 19.4 percent in 2004 over 2003. In 2003, the IC market hit $166 billion, up 18.3 percent over 2002, according to the SIA.
"We expect growth will exceed our 20 percent forecast in 2004," said Doug Andrey, principal industry analyst for San Jose-based SIA. "We are saying that this is a broad-based recovery," Andrey said in a conference call on Monday (May 3).
The trade association did not elaborate on the exact growth figure for 2004. Andrey said the SIA would not disclose the figure until June 9. Until then, "We don't want to short-circuit our forecasting process," he said.
The new forecast follows strong chip sales for the first quarter and the month of March, according to figures released on Monday (see May 3 story). In 2004, cell phones, PCs, digital cameras, and DVDs are projected to grow 10 percent, 11 percent, 14 percent, and 20 percent, respectively, according to the SIA.
Wireline is growing much faster than projected. Originally, the sector was supposed to show flat growth. Now, it will grow 5-to-10 percent, according to the SIA.
On the downside, fab-capacity utilization was at 92 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, Andrey said. The figure is based on numbers from VLSI Research Inc. of Santa Clara, Calif. "Capacity utilization may drop below that (in the first quarter of 2004)," he said.
And at the same time, product demand was mixed in March. Worldwide chip sales for March were propelled by growth in analog, digital signal processors (DSPs), and microprocessors, but flash-memory lagged the field, according to a new report from Pacific Crest Securities Inc. (see May 3 story).
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