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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: gregor_us who wrote (13208)5/5/2004 8:05:15 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
<Fed was entering a tightening cycle.>

This Fed tightening cycle is a joke. So is the Chinese, "beat 'em with a wet noodle" approach. And once the BOJ starts printing money again, in currency interventions, that will really be lethal. What they don't realize is that if they had been more aggressive, (say 2% by now), and another one percent by August, the reflation trades would have really corrected, and you'd have $32 oil today, instead of breathing down the neck of $40. And they might have put some life back into the USD.

Instead this "measured" MoP perp only encourages another round of long trades, a USD collapse, the most vicious period ahead for the Train Wreck, and just for good measure, an inflation panic at the longer end of the bond "market". And this time it will be much more toxic than the so called reflation trade. It'll be the crack-up boom (flucht in die sachwerte)strain. That's the one with the potential for run away, parabolic, out of the bottle moves. All you have to do is look at a CRB chart, no resistance once it clears 283, and blue sky above.
futures.tradingcharts.com
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