Greg,
No apologies necessary. I think we see things pretty much the same. I have a basic distrust of most investment guru's, especially the newsletter writers. I get so much junk mail from them.
One of my favorite stories is when I heard Michael Murphy, another high tech guru (speaker, newsletter writer, fund sponsor, etc.) speak a few years back, I think 1997. Afterward, he was signing copies of his new book on high tech investing. While waiting in line, I looked in the index for my favorite stock, Qualcomm, found it was mentioned in two places in the book, and looked it up. He completely slammed it both times. While he was signing the book, I tried to start a discussion about it, but he avoided the subject. I am convinced he just did not know anything, and that his comments in the book were based on information from sources who had a specific agenda. I flat out told him he was wrong. (I assume everyone pretty much knows that Qualcomm was a huge winner in 1999, and even now is about a ten bagger from the time Murphy dissed it.)
I also asked him if HQL/HQH, two Biotech closed end mutual funds, would be a good way to play the biotech market for someone who did not know a lot about it. Murphy's talk had been mostly about Biotech, and he did seem to know more about that than he did about telcom. He thought about HQL/HQH for a moment, then answered that yes, that probably would be a good way to play biotechs. The funny part is, several months later he started mentioning those funds in his newsletter! Perhaps I am taking more credit than due, but I am convinced that I am at least partially responsible for thier mention.
The bottom line is, IMHO, the average investor, if he is willing to do his own due diligence, can probably do as well if not better than most newsletter writers. I will look at a newsletter, and have even subscribed to one or two, but I always follow up any recommendations with a lot of my own research.
All IMHO, and mostly off topic, but what the heck, this thread is pretty quite. |
