Forbes.com: Mark Augustine, you're bearish on Genentech--what are your top two reasons for the "neutral" rating?
Mark E. Augustine: The two things we focus on for Genentech are product development and valuation. On the product side, there are three clear earnings drivers at Genentech, two of which are here today and the third in the not-too-distant future. The two here today are Herceptin, for breast cancer, and Rituxan, for lymphoma. Down the road is Xolair, which could be approved this year, for allergic asthma.
The two drugs on the market now account for more than 50% of current revenue and earnings estimates. And when you add in Xolair, these three drugs will account for the majority of revenue and earnings per share for several years.
We have identified concerns about both Herceptin and Xolair that weigh down on the stock and limit the near-term upside. Sales of Herceptin have reached a near-term plateau. We also feel there are some excesses of optimism on Wall Street about Xolair, which hasn't even been FDA-approved yet. There are a sufficient number of clinicians who are skeptical of using the drug, which limits its sales potential.
As for valuation, Genentech's long-term growth rate is 20% to 25%, and at today's price level, it is still trading at a pretty hefty premium to its growth rate.
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