Biogen Message Board - Msg: 20097585

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 176.82

-0.2%

Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1547)	5/5/2004 8:18:29 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1686

Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2004E $1.34, 2005E $1.70 Outperform/Neutral (BIIB) $57.01 BIIB released positive data on BG-12, an oral fumarate, from a European Phase IIb trial for psoriasis. BG-12 seems to be effective and safe but the current formulation may be inconvenient (up to 3X/day). A European Phase III trial is expected to complete by year-end. We anticipate results in H1/05 and potential filing in Europe in 2005. Additional trials are being planned for 2004, including a Phase III trial for psoriasis in the U.S. and a Phase II study in MS. BIIB is also improving the formulation. We estimate the sales potential of BG-12 to be $300MM but there should be leverage from the existing dermatology and neurology franchises. We maintain BIIB as Outperform on earnings acceleration from potential launch of Antegren in '05 and data from 4 Phase III trials (combined estimated potential of $2B in 04/05). BIIB shares are at 43X our '04 EPS or PEG of 2.2 vs 40X and 2.0 PEG for the group. The risks are slower sales, development failures, manufacturing, reimbursement & generics. Our coverage view is Neutral.

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