Re: What do you think of the possibility of the emergence of the enlarged EU in 20-50 years as a real counter-weight to the US?
If you look for a genuine geopolitical counterweight to the US in 20 years from now, turn to China.... Too many people fantasize and lucubrate on Europe rising again renewed from its ashes --like the Phoenix. I'm afraid it's wishful thinking, it's a vision of the past: the unchallenged US-European duumvirate over the world is not coming back... As the technological gap has been closed, Asia has the means to remain autonomous and set its own agenda. The US and Europe will be allowed to grab a few crumbs here and there: Nissan in Japan, Daewoo in S. Korea, an insurance co in China, a coupla banks in Thailand,... and that's it.
As for Europe proper, I've already sketched out its future on some other threads: think of the EU as a smaller version of the UN. The EU is actually a UNE in progress, that is, the United Nations of Europe. Somehow, the EU Parliament is a General Assembly of sorts... The Commission and the EU (Heads of) Government meetings fill a role similar to that of the UN Security Council... Then we've got the UNSC Permanent Members --the world's heavies... Likewise, in Europe, we can see that France, Germany and Britain hold "mini-summits" for three only...
Economically speaking, I'm a bit more pessimistic... The politically correct assumption over here is that, sooner or later, Europe will catch up with America and Asia as far as GDP growth is concerned. Well, I don't buy that. I'm afraid the EU will never again hit the 4% GDP-growth mark --of course, some countries might make it but not the EU as a whole... Hence my doom-and-gloom forecast that the EU's economic weight will gradually shrink down to the point where it matches the EU's political weight --and not the other way around as boasted by the "Euro-hypsters".
Your turn,
Gus |
