Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (5761)	5/6/2004 4:15:14 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) of 116555

>>i will take it as more proof that the oil supply situation is already far worse than officially believed. as for analysts, note that MOST analysts do not even know anything about the the depletion situation, certainly not on WS. or if they do know, they aren't telling. oil depletion remains something that is only discussed by a minority<< not true -- we had a well-known analyst in. He is very familiar with the depletion story, but is very big on "technology" and the ability of price to temper demand he told me that Deffeyes was too pessimistic, not regrading depletion, but the rate of depletion on the backside of the curve. Anyway, the more he talked the more convinced I became -- we got a serious problem on our hands -- folks talk about Iraq and Russia -- but how well do we really know those reserves. The current forecast I am reading by the same expert says that OPEC production has been down as they restricted supply as well as some temporary interruptions -- with non-OPEC taking up slack for the temporary interuptions -- that doesn't make sense to me -- why wouldn't OPEC increase now and push the price marginally lower, getting more volume --

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