Kerry pulls into tie with Bush on state-by-state race
RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer
Friday, May 7, 2004
©2004 Associated Press
URL: sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/05/07/politics1637EDT0728.DTL
(05-07) 14:10 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --
President Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry are virtually tied in their race for state electoral votes as a crush of political problems has prevented either candidate from breaking open the contest.
Six months before Election Day, Bush controls or has an edge in 24 states that account for 205 electoral votes, 65 shy of the 270 needed to win the wide-open race. The Democratic challenger has the advantage in 14 states plus the District of Columbia for 205 electoral votes.
In the dozen remaining states (138 electoral votes), the contest is either tied or there's no adequate polling, according to an Associated Press review of public and private surveys as well as interviews with analysts in key states.
"The country is so polarized. The president has done nothing to sway Democrats and moderates to his point of view," said independent pollster Ed Sarpolus of Michigan. "Kerry has to be pleased that it's still close."
A few more states are in play since Kerry secured the Democratic nomination two months ago, but the two candidates remain about even in the count. While the Democrat appears to have made gains in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin -- three "tossup" states with 37 electoral votes -- Bush has countered with leads in West Virginia (5 votes) and Arizona (10 votes).
All five states are still in play and will likely remain fluid.
In addition, one state considered solidly Democratic two months ago -- New Jersey (15 votes) -- is closer than expected, with the White House checking the cost of television commercials there. Two states thought to be firmly GOP -- Colorado (nine votes) and Louisiana (nine votes) -- are in play because Kerry just began airing ads there.
However, even some Republicans believe New Jersey is still a long shot for Bush, while many Democrats feel the same about the South for Kerry.
"I don't think a Massachusetts liberal is going to carry Louisiana," said Jim Duffy, a Democratic strategist from Washington.
An AP-Ipsos poll suggests the race is tied nationwide, with Bush's support at 46 percent, Kerry at 43 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 7 percent. Nader tilts the race toward Bush in at least a half dozen states, according to separate polling.
Kerry also is being hurt by Bush's television ads and a steady stream of GOP criticism designed to cast the Democrat as a flip-flopping elitist. He has been slow to organize his grass-roots team and find a general election message.
After a long delay -- due in part to internal divisions -- Kerry this week finally unveiled the biographical ad blitz demanded by fellow Democrats.
He may have a hard time persuading voters it's time to change leaders. "If I had to vote today, I would probably go with the devil I know," said 33-year-old independent voter George Hillyer of Buffalo, N.Y.
Despite encouraging economic news -- nearly 900,000 jobs have been created this year -- support for Bush's handling of the economy was at 43 percent, the lowest number since Ipsos began tracking that question at the start of 2002.
Support for Bush's handling of foreign policy and terrorism, usually his strongest area, was at 50 percent, down from 55 percent a month ago. He has even lost backing among Southerners and Republican women, two key Bush constituencies.
Carl Adams, a 66-year-old retiree from Louin, Miss., said news about prisoner abuse in Iraq made him "very much stronger against Bush and against the war."
In state after state, a strong majority of voters told pollsters that the country was headed in the wrong direction yet still split their vote between Bush and Kerry.
"If you had come down from Mars and were told about all of Bush's problems, you would pronounce him D.O.A., A.S.A.P," Duffy said. "But the other guy isn't catching fire."
Bush has missed a golden opportunity, too. Republicans had hoped to open a lead over Kerry by now, and perhaps take a few states off the table.
Kerry started at a disadvantage. The 21 states plus the District of Columbia won by Al Gore lost seven electoral votes -- from 267 to 260 -- since 2000 because of population shifts. That means Kerry must retain Gore's states and find 10 more electoral votes. The possibilities include:
* Florida (27 votes), narrowly loss by Gore but trending slightly Republican.
* Ohio, which Gore lost by just 3 percentage points even after abandoning the state. Thousands of jobs have been lost in Ohio (20 electoral votes) since Bush took office.
* Arizona (10 electoral votes), which has a growing Hispanic population.
* Any combination of smaller states, starting with New Hampshire (four votes), which shares a busy border with Kerry's home state of Massachusetts. Nevada (five votes) and Colorado are possibilities.
"I think Colorado is a test," said independent pollster Floyd Ceruli of Denver. "It's a smart thing to do -- you're out their probing the opposition's lines to see if there are any soft spots."
Along those lines, Kerry advisers have checked the cost of air time in North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky. They insist that the Vietnam veteran and hunter could overcome the cultural hurdles that tripped up Gore in the South.
Elliot Stonecipher, an independent political consultant in Louisiana, said the state is growing more Democratic every year but perhaps not quickly enough for Kerry.
Even if he can't win, Kerry must play in the South. Any money Bush is forced to spend defensively in the region can't be spent in Ohio, Florida and northern battlegrounds.
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Associated Press Writer Will Lester contributed to this report.
©2004 Associated Press |
