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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: TH who wrote (13413)5/7/2004 9:34:07 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
TH, GDP is also a lie, due to hedonic pricing. And productivity is derived from the GDP number, so, fruit of the poison tree.

This birth death model thing is what they call a SWAG (a Stupid Wild Assed Guess). One of my smartest clients referred to it as a slush fund for making the numbers look good. It replaced a horrible model that was nicknamed The Entrepreneurial Model. That one over counted jobs for an entire year, then they were corrected in one fell swoop in the final annual numbers. Ah, you say, wouldn't it also under predict at times? You would think so, but that never happened during its existence. <G> So far, this new model corrects many of the flaws of The Entrepreneurial Model, but not the potential for fiddling. I believe the reason we saw the big negative in the January number was due to correcting the previous year's mistakes, but I haven't received confirmation of that yet.
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