I think you've come close to nailing it here, and in one important respect (real wages), you've actually understated your case. We are getting a heavy dose of Ministry of Propaganda claptrap (*), and as usual the cognoscenti are sitting at the edge of their seats, taking it all in with baited breath. Ironically the bond rout should quickly kick in big cutbacks in the "stalwarts" of retailing, the bloated financial sector, homebuilders/construction/real estate (**). And how about state and local government? They've been very dependent on rolling over debt at lower rates. This got in just in the nick of time:
sddt.com
(*)The Daily Treasury Statement, based on taxes paid on wages doesn't really lie. It's showing only modest growth, up 1.5% in April. And remember, April last year was during the war, and we were in a true slump still. Let's see how the comparables for May-July look like, as the economy in 2003 truly picked up from the hyper-stimulus. And the 3% you can add for the new tax rate, will no longer be a factor going forward. With actual inflation probably now running at 5% plus, 1.5% (spread among more people) just doesn't cover these "new" expenses (largely subsistence items like food and energy), so in real wages are are almost depressionary.
(**) Let's key on the mortgage purchase index, not so much next Wed, but the following two, as that will reflect the new mortgage rate. If it plunges below 380-400, I think we can start assuming the housing bubble is being damaged. The actual top likely went in during March.
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