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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (13471)	5/8/2004 10:14:54 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) of 110194

what do you think about this comment from the latest Hoisington "interim" report? they seem to be saying inflation does not exist or cannot be very strong because growth in the M's is slow...i would have to dig back, but i don't think they were complaining about high future inflation when the M's were in double digits; i just don't know about using them as the sole definition of inflation. maybe as Noland argues, there are just too many other ways that money, credit, assets, and claims on assets have become "fungible" which are not captured in these aggregates. In the last 12 months, both M2 and M3 are ahead by about 4%. Such rates of growth are the slowest in the past seven years. Over a longer time frame, the growth in M2 equals the growth in nominal GDP (inflation plus real growth). Thus, if inflation is 2% late in the year, this would mean that real growth will drop to 2% also, down from better than 4% in the first quarter. hoisingtonmgt.com

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