Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 157.44

-2.2%

3:59 PM EDT

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To: Elmer Flugum who wrote (10845)	5/9/2004 5:53:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 10921

RE: "If shipments are still rising steeply..." The graph shows that shipments rose in what seems like preparation for Christmas and, maybe, year end budgets, and has been falling off. So where does "still rising steeply" come from. Also, everyone along the supply chain is trying very hard produce and ship to meet end user demand. Capital investment is geared to end user demand. If they all blow it big time, then, yes, there could be a period of adjustment before inventories are brought back to meet demand levels. There are seasonal reasons why demand falls off during the summer months. I don't know how a forecast can know if a significant inflection point in demand will be reached in that time frame.

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