Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (6014)	5/10/2004 7:06:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

The market is pricing in several rate increases by the end of the year which means the market believes the strong jobs reports will continue. Do you disagree with what the market is saying? the market is an indicator of sentiment. No more no less. What did it say at the 2000 top? The 2002 bottom. Last sept bond yield soared only to come crashing down hard. Was the maket right then? Now? If you take the view that the market is never wrong then what happened? Buffet's view is the market is a short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine. That seems more like it to me. If I accept your aparent logic, the market believed strong jobs last sept-dec and did not for jan-march but does again now. WTF? Finally, you need to look back at lots of posts here. The unemployment rate is phony as can be. It is only low because the participation rates has fallen like a rock in spite of a growing population. It is closer to 10% if you add in part time for economic resasons, discouraged workers, people who used up all their benefits ect. Finally even the latest jobs reports are ASSUMED. The BLS assumes we created those jobs. Did we? Is that what the bond market believed or was the bond market just finally sick of rising copper, oil, food, and steel? Even IF we created those jobs, how many were part time jobs, people working two jobs out of desperation etc etc etc? One final thought, if interest rate hikes slow down housing, what do you think the job picture will look like? This economy is toast. And if the stock market is saying anything at all, then that is probably it. Cash out refis and business tax credits just went poof. What does this economy do for an encore? Mish

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