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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates
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To: tuck who wrote (663)5/10/2004 7:59:06 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic  Read Replies (1) of 897
 
Tuck,

I am terrible in timing any short or long for that case. Lately, I am terrible in any stock picking efforts. Still can not understand why? :(

I do believe that oncology stocks are overvalued and at some time in future they will need to correct. Overvaluation is in most cases (if not all, for those who have approved drug and this is spilling over to any candidate with accompanying promotion) based on skyrocketing price of the new biologic and chemo agents. For instance combine new chemo (oxaliplatin) with old chemos, add one-two biologic, supportive care, MDs fee, hospital fee,...and you will come to $15-20 K per month. Why will pay for this? Medicare???

If average cancer pts live five years, he will be 20-25 months on therapy. This can go to $400-500K. If we have 2 millions cancer pts annually, and ~30% are on therapy this is $250-300 billions additional cost in future for Medicare.

Oncology-bios today needs few hundreds pts to make millions in profit. This will (or can not) not hold for long, imo.

Miljenko
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