Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry Message Board

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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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To: SeachRE who wrote (22131)	5/12/2004 9:30:07 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 81568

Why the Polls Don't Add Up By ANDREW KOHUT nytimes.com Published: May 12, 2004 WASHINGTON — You can hardly blame the Democrats if they seem a bit confused. After all, as the situation in Iraq has worsened over the past six weeks and national polls have shown a steep decline in President Bush's job-approval ratings (some, including the latest CBS/New York Times survey, have him registering well below the 50 percent mark), John Kerry can't seem to pull ahead of the president the national horse-race polls. <more> Excerpt: The real reason that Mr. Kerry is making so little progress is that voters are now focused almost exclusively on the president. This is typical: as an election approaches, voters first decide whether the incumbent deserves re-election; only later do they think about whether it is worth taking a chance on the challenger. There is no reason to expect a one-to-one relationship between public disaffection with the incumbent and an immediate surge in public support for his challenger. MY COMMENT: Don't worry, Kerry will win.

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