Atmel - the trend is about to change Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change

ATML 8.140

0.0%

Apr 12 5:00 PM EST

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To: Daniel who wrote (13385)	5/13/2004 2:16:56 AM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) of 13565

Re: FABLESS chip cos. are in trouble by: harleydogrules (M/Silicon Valley) 05/12/04 10:38 pm Msg: 196885 of 196897 At the annual meeting today George drove this message home loud and clear. Ateml is able to grow at 1.5x the avg. industry run rate because it is not subject to the "fabless" model. It is able to continue this run rate with modest equipment purchases at least through 05 and up to $3B in revenue. Other companies desiring to increase production either have to build it themselves or find excess capacity elsewhere which isn't easy. Atmel predicts that they are in the absolute sweet spot and in the first 20% of at least a 2 yr. if not 3 yr. boom cycle. Barton was even more impressive today (because of the language barrier) and is clearly the new fair haired boy at Atmel and stepped up to answer just about every audience question. What was impressive about Barton today is that after only one year on the job, he is calling out dramatic sequential margin improvement on top of the most dramatic margin increases we have seen over the last two quarters for the next 7 quarters. This is either incredible visibility or incredible stupidity that would wipe out (IMHO) share value and undoubtedly his career if he is wrong. Given that they have blown away all recent projections across the board and from the street, I have to believe that Barton is hugely bullish because and willing to dish out these predictions because of three things: (1.) he has his fingers on the pulse of the customer order pipeline and it is growing swiftly, (2.) because they are starting to see pricing increases that are not modeled for, and (3.) the shrinks they are going through will put them in even a greater sweet spot than what is currently modeled for. 90% of this quarter was already achieved at the last conf. call so maybe we are looking at 130-140% of last quarter already. Exciting times to be long on this baby. The share price is a true gift if you have the patience to roll with all the crap in the universe that has nothing to do with this company making money and that can, on occasion, knock the legs out of the market. finance.messages.yahoo.com

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