I understand this must be a new map, as I thought you were of the opinion that the high was in for the year.
My map has DJIA around 8500 in the next few months, then a lot of bouncing around in the 8500-10600 range into 2005, when the wheels really start falling off.
Zeev is bearish late 2005 onwards also, as I recall. Your bull call is contrary to the 4-year cycle, too.
Looks like the near-term stock market fall will coincide with the "impossible", which is a continued rally in the dollar. A 38% retrace of the dollar bear to 98 and change is possible.
My guess is that up we see in the stock market after June will be in US$ terms, but measured in gold, Euros, and Yen it will be down, IMO. In other words, the stock market will look like it's rising only because the buck is falling. The same can be said for most of the rally in the past year.
FWIW,
crusty |
