THE NOTE - NEWS SUMMARY
The presidential race of late has been defined by negative world events that seem to be dragging George W. Bush's poll numbers down.
But before anyone goes Galluping off and says "Pew ew" about the president's chances, remember all the advantages he has:
1. Big, bold gestures — like today's headline-dominating Rumsfeld trip to Iraq — are going to be possible all year.
2. The consistent tendency of everyone, including Bob Novak and congressional Republicans, to underestimate the administration's ability to make big, bold gestures all year.
3. The computer chip Karl Rove implanted in Ralph Nader's brain in mid-1999.
4. John Kerry keeps making mistakes, including and especially speaking very pessimistically about America. (In the fall, people besides Jodi, Glen, and Ed will Notice, and the errors will matter more … )
5. The tilt of the electoral college.
6. Guns, gays, and God, and the below-the-radar targeting in key states on values issues (particularly outside urban areas in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and others).
7. The peculiar dynamics of the first post-9/11 election might lead a surprisingly high percentage of wrong-track voters to choose to stay with the commander in chief.
8. The loyalty that the POTUS AND VPOTUS earned from congressional Republicans campaigning for majorities in 2002 and raising money for four years means BC04 will never have an Ed Rollins-type problem (i.e, GOP candidates distancing themselves from any presidential problems, as with 41) (Although, check out today's Hill story for a warning sign for the White House … ..).
9. The essential two-step nature of an any incumbent referendum: not only do voters have to fire the incumbent, but they need to be psychologically willing to hire his replacement.
10. The war on terror threshold — mostly missing from Kerry campaign polling memos, we notice — remains Bush's trump card.
11. "Things are tough, stay the course" is almost as good as Bush's 2000 slogan ("You've never had it so good — it's time for a change.").
12. "Strength" without substance … is what, exactly?
13. It's still only May — just like it was a week ago. |
