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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (13890)	5/14/2004 1:23:47 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Date: Fri May 14 2004 12:02 trotsky (frustrated@yield curve) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved regarding mortgages, the benchmark securities are FNM's agency bonds. w.r.t. recent developments in the yield curve, the main reason that yields of shorter maturities have risen more sharply than those of langer dated ones is that the so-called 'carry trade' is concentrated in the 2 and 5 year notes. part of this trade had to be unwound due to mounting capital losses, as these trades are HIGHLY leveraged ( up to 50:1 reportedly ) . otoh, the recent back-up in yields will very likely result in new carry trades being put on, as the current spread is very enticing. i still maintain that the coming bust of the housing bubble will occur IN SPITE of rates falling again. Japan is showing the way...

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