But if all you have to offer is reason why we can't succeed, then you should maybe just spend less time online and go off and dig yourself a little deeper into that canyon... (just remember that canyons generally act as a major wind tunnel which will deliver fallout, biological, and chemical agents right to your doorstep)...
I guess I better get a bio/chem shelter going then. Of course when you live 35 miles from a small city and have only a handful of neighbors within a 10 mile radius, they'd have to pretty much cover the country to get me.
By the way who are these people who have the will and the capacity to get me in this canyon?
Seriously, you act like I'm trying to find reasons why we must fail when I should be finding reasons why we should succeed. The truth is that I'm not trying to find reasons, I'm looking at the realities, listening to the various viewpoints and using my life experiences to project outcomes.
So far I have seen no reason to question my capacity to read the outcome of our involvement. I've seen the human reactions that I expected on the part of both the Iraqi and the Americans. It doesn't paint an optimistic picture and I predict that if we stay it will get worse, and when it gets bad enough we'll leave.
I don't think we'll wait that much longer to leave, however. Even the Rumsfeld's of the world are now recognizing the ugly truth that this was a mistake and that unless something unexpected happens to change the dynamics in Iraq we will have no choice but to leave.
The only viable option I can see that would allow us to stay for any significant time would be for us to dramatically increase our level or lethal force against the growing insurgency and that requires a level of violence and expense that the American public will NOT tolerate.
What they'll likely try to do, however, is try to reach an agreement with somebody to pull back into military enclaves and then try to maintain a military presence for years. We'll see what we have to offer the Iraqis to achieve that, or if we simply make a deal with the Kurds and become their protectors and sponsors.
In ANY EVENT, Iraq will likely become at best, a theologically ruled country, a haven for terrorists, and a lasting reminder that America cannot use it's force to change the world; notice the "ands." A corollary is that every one of the failings of that dysfunctional country will be laid at the doorsteps of America and our level of respect and prestige in the world has been severely impaired.
In the real world there ARE instances where failure is the only option when you set goals that are unrealistic, and inconsistent with human, cultural and physical factors. When that happens you WILL fail so it's better to change your goals and save time, money and lives.
If you don't believe me then ask yourself why the Bush people are now talking about modest goals when just 9 months ago they were castigating others who advanced such limited goals as "partisan defeatists."
Don't blame me for seeing the likely outcomes of this misadventure in Iraq; as we saw with the ever more modest search for the justifications for the war, reality has a way of bringing tooth-fairy thinkers ratcheting back to the unalterable facts of the real world.
Of course I don't claim any special insight; Bush Sr. and a whole slew of "intellectuals and mideastern experts" predicted this quite early. Of course they probably didn't realize that we'd roll snake eyes with a Bush Administration that could be best characterized as the incompetents attempting the impossible.
If we weren't spending so much money that could be beneficially spent doing good in the world and especially if we weren't losing so many lives, the irony would be exquisite. |
