Wanted: A Candidate to Defend Financial Future and Way of Life
By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Wednesday, May 5, 2004; 6:00 AM
ZANESVILLE, OHIO -- There was a time when people without college degrees could earn a good living in the big cities of Cleveland and Cincinnati, as well as in the small towns along the Ohio River near the West Virginia line. People raised their families in towns like McConnelsville and Clarington, working on farms or in steel or aluminum factories, and others moved here in search of a decent living and a quiet life.
Those days of contentment have faded over the last two decades and have been replaced by angst over what the future holds as the small towns here follow the big cities through the difficult transition into the new high-tech economy. As America increasingly becomes a place that sells ideas and services, rather than goods and products, few places better represent the difficulty of that transition than Ohio. Some areas of the state, perhaps most notably the northeast, have been successfully adjusting for the better part of 20 years, and the vibrant, new Cleveland downtown is a beacon of that success. To the south of Cleveland is Akron, the former rubber capital of the world. It suffered hard times for decades as behemoths like Goodyear and Firestone, among others, shipped jobs to other countries. Now the area crackles with innovation as a center of polymer technology.
The smaller towns have often had more difficult transitions, and it is in places like these where views about the economy could help tip the state -- and perhaps even the country -- one way or the other in the next presidential election.
This article is the first in a four-part series about the personal and political impact that the issues at the center of this presidential campaign are having in four battleground states. For this article and the accompanying video report, washingtonpost.com videographer Travis Fox and I traveled to southeastern Ohio to talk with voters in two counties facing high unemployment: the mostly Republican Morgan County and the mostly Democratic Monroe County.
Traditionally it has been difficult to predict what Ohio will do in a presidential election, and, for that very reason, the state has become the focus for both major parties in the hunt for the White House. This year is no different. Ohio is the classic battleground state, having voted for the eventual winner in almost every election in the past 100 years. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio.
Although perceptions of the economy's strength have improved in Ohio over the past year, significant anxiety remains. Dissatisfaction with President Bush's performance on the economy is high. In a potentially troubling sign for the president, fewer than four in 10 Ohio adults approved of his handling of the economy, according to the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll conducted in March.
There is a wide gulf of opinion between Ohio Democrats and Republicans about the state of the national economy, with the former much more likely than the latter to believe the economy is doing poorly, according to the Ohio Poll. Seventy-one percent of Republicans predict "good times" for the nation's businesses over the year, compared to 36 percent of Democrats who feel that way. The bad news for Bush is that those who consider themselves independents are more likely to side with Democrats than Republicans on their outlook on the economy right now, with only 34 percent predicting good business conditions for the next 12 months.
The widespread disapproval of the president's handling of the economy has helped drag down his overall approval rating.
The poll put the president's approval rating at 46 percent, one of the lowest of any president in the past few decades. (President Clinton dipped to 45 percent in 1994, and Ronald Reagan was at 46 percent in 1982. Both were reelected, but Bush's low numbers come much further along in his first term.) Already, both the Kerry and Bush campaigns are pouring money and resources into advertising and organizing here, and both have made major campaign appearances in the state. Meanwhile, the two camps are exchanging charges and countercharges about whose policies are more damaging to the steel and other industries that are struggling here.
"We're seeing that Democrats and Republicans have very clear differences in the direction that economy is going in," said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll. "There is a diversity of economic concerns, and they really are region-based."
A Matter of Motivation in Monroe County
For all of the talk about the struggling industrial Midwest, Ohio's overall unemployment rate mirrored the national average of 5.7 percent in March, the last month for which numbers are currently available. Some areas of the state are doing exceedingly well, and others are faring poorly, with unemployment rates hovering at more than double or triple the national average. There are rural areas doing well and others doing poorly. There are urban areas performing competitively in the new economy, others faltering. And some suburban areas are doing better than others. Ohio is simply too vast and populous to get a read on it by visiting one part of the state. But visiting two counties – one leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican – in the southeastern part of the state gives a good snapshot of the competing interests and opinions that could affect the presidential election here this year.
Monroe County sits on the eastern edge of the state along the Ohio River, about a 90-minute drive from Pittsburgh. People standing on the western side of the river in Ohio can literally wave to their neighbors across the river on the West Virginia side. The major employers here have traditionally been some of the nation's largest steel and aluminum companies, several of which are either in bankruptcy or emerging from it. The unemployment rate in March was 12.8 percent -- more than double the state and national rates, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.
This county is overwhelmingly Democratic and has voted for the Democratic candidate in nine of the last 10 presidential elections. In 2000, the county supported Gore over Bush 51 to 44 percent.
The major employer in the southern part of the county is Ormet Aluminum, which recently announced layoffs of 300 employees in Monroe County. The company blamed the "current significant imbalance between the market prices of aluminum and alumina" -- a raw material used to make aluminum -- as the reason for the action, according to a press release. The workers, who are currently in contract negotiations with the company, blame federal legislation that has liberalized trade with China.
China, they argue, has driven up the price of alumina by purchasing it in large quantities on the open market. They accuse China of then using cheap labor to produce massive quantities of aluminum, which it dumps back in the United States at prices too low for American firms to compete against.
Ron Blatt and Loren Hartshorn, officials with the United Steelworkers of America Local 5760 in Clarington, said anxiety over the economy is off the charts for the people in this small town along the Ohio River. They said this part of the county relies on Ormet for its very existence. And there's significant concern that Ormet might not survive for long. The company's troubles have already hurt the tax base of the county, with officials struggling to find ways to fully fund the school system.
Blatt, a 44-year-old father of four, said the situation is dire and there aren't many other options.
"China is a big problem for us because they have these huge facilities and produce way more than their country can use," he said. "They send their aluminum over here for our people to buy. But also, [American aluminum giant] Alcoa is building plants in Mexico and [Iceland], and they're bringing in their cheap aluminum. It's all running us out of business. We're in a race to the bottom."
Blatt said Ormet provided the area with 1,500 "good paying jobs" -- the average worker makes around $40,000 a year, including overtime, more than enough to have a decent standard of living in a town where the average household income, according to the 2000 Census, is around $30,500 and the median home value is around $63,000.
"People have built their lives here. But what are their options? Go work at Wheeling-Pitt Steel (in nearby West Virginia)," which just emerged from bankruptcy in August and is still bleeding money?, Blatt asked. "There are no jobs to go to in this area. The only thing you can do is go somewhere else."
Both Blatt and Hartshorn, who has three kids, said they've come to accept the fact that their own children almost certainly will not return home after attending college.
Who do they blame for all of this? President Bush and his party.
"We're at the bargaining table right now, and we're just fighting to keep what we've got now, rather than any increases [in pay and health care benefits]," Hartshorn, 43, said. "It just seems like every time we get to where the Republicans are controlling things, this is what we get stuck with."
Both men are active in the Democratic Party and are working vigorously to see that Bush is defeated in November.
The question here is not whether Monroe County will vote for Bush or Kerry this year so much as how motivated voters will be to turn out at the polls.
Both men described the local electorate as highly motivated to get Bush out of the White House -- as motivated as they've ever seen. And they predict a huge turnout in November. If other similar counties follow suit, that could help tip the election, they said.
But when asked about Kerry's support for most of the trade agreements that are at the root of their anger against Bush, Hartshorn and Blatt looked at each other and smiled. Hartshorn explained that he actually worked for Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt in the primaries, even taking time off of work to help campaign for him in Iowa. Sure, Gephardt was better on these issues, but Kerry is better than Bush, he argued. They also believe Kerry when he says he'll work to enforce conditions in current trade agreements governing labor and environmental rights that he believes the Bush administration is ignoring, and that he'll push for important protections in future agreements.
"Believe me, we're not doing all this work for nothing," Hartshorn said. "We’re going to hold him to his promises."
Bouncing Back in Bush Country
Just as there is little doubt that Monroe County will vote Democratic in November, there's little doubt that Morgan County, about 30 minutes drive to the west, will vote Republican. In many ways, it is the political polar opposite of Monroe County, having voted for the Republican presidential candidate in nine of the last 10 elections. This rural region of farms and small towns is culturally conservative and fiercely proud. Most people here wouldn't think of voting for a Democrat. Bush beat Gore 58 to 38 percent here in 2000.
But unemployment is pushing 20 percent (18.6 percent as of March, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services), the highest rate in the state. That is partly the result of three major employers -- Malta Wood Windows Inc., Gould Electronics Inc. and Taylor Woodworks -- closing their doors in recent years, leaving thousands of people unemployed and looking for work.
Things are so bad that even some Republicans are questioning who will get their vote in November.
Among them is Bonnie Miller, who worked at Malta Wood Windows for 15 years, just as her parents did before her. Miller lost her job along with about 250 other people after the owners shut down the plant in the spring of 2001 in the wake of an employee strike. In recent years, Malta had struggled to compete against cheaper, mass-produced window makers -- many of them foreign-based -- and finally ceased to be viable.
Since then, Miller has helped support her family, which also lost its health insurance when she lost her job, by cleaning rooms at a nearby hotel part time and cutting grass. She voted for Bush in 2000, but isn't sure what she'll do this year.
"Nobody wants to leave," she said of her hometown, but she wonders what kind of future is there. She said she voted for Bush in 2000 because "I thought maybe he'd be able to turn it around and get some jobs here."
The more voters like Miller that Kerry can get, the better chances he has of winning in November.
But there are also plenty of Republicans who plan on sticking with Bush. They're quite pleased with the Bush tax cuts and fear that a Democratic president would return the regulatory environment that has stifled business in the past.
About a year and a half ago, the Morgan County Community Improvement Corporation purchased the old Malta facilities with a plan to lure new companies with a mix of tax breaks and other incentives such as low rent. Five former Malta employees were able to reopen the Malta plant after they raised about $140,000 and took out a line of credit. The improvement corporation also helped them secure a $220,000 grant from the Southern Ohio Agricultural & Community Development Foundation.
The five owners are also the plant's only workers.
David Shaner Jr., 52, who found himself unemployed in 2001 after working at Malta for 29 years, is now the president and CEO of the new Malta. And he said he's optimistic about growth as well as the economic future of the county.
Shaner said Malta's problems were the result of increased competition from large domestic companies making not only wood windows, but the less expensive vinyl windows that have become the industry standard. And as difficult as the circumstances of Malta's closing were, he said he doesn't necessarily blame the government or Washington politicians for what happens in a competitive, free-market system.
Shaner said he voted for Bush over Gore in 2000 and would probably vote for Bush over Kerry this year.
"I'm relatively optimistic about the end of the downturn in the stock market," said Shaner, who is married and has three children. "And I think the economy is going to improve."
The Future Through Partisan Lenses
In counties like Morgan and Monroe, jobs continue to disappear. When new ones appear, they often are not the sort that allow a family to buy a house, save for college or take vacations. These days, the young people who make it to college rarely come back -- a demographic fact that has contributed both to the aging of these communities and a brain drain that makes it even more difficult to lure information age employers. It's a seemingly endless cycle that wreaks havoc on lives and could potentially complicate the election-year politics of this bellwether state.
Dale Hileman, executive director of the Eastern Ohio Development Alliance, has a positive view of the state's economic future. The EODA is an independent, nonprofit organization that promotes economic development in 16 Appalachian counties in eastern Ohio. The unemployment rates in these counties run from 5.5 percent in Athens to 18.6 in Morgan.
Sitting in his office in the Guernsey County town of Cambridge, to the north of Monroe and Morgan, Hileman acknowledges that some areas of the region are struggling, but he insists that, overall, things are looking up. He said business has been helped by the policies of both Republican Gov. Bob Taft and President Bush. Cuts in personal income taxes, as well as capital gains tax cuts, have consumers spending money and businesses investing. And while liberalized trade laws have hurt some industries, freer trade has helped many others, Hileman said.
He reels off statistics from a recent poll of industry executives: 90 percent of businesses say they would recommend the area to other industries looking to locate here; 70 percent thought corporate taxes were reasonable; and 66 percent have been in the region for 20 years and longer.
"When you hear that, you've got some happy campers," he said. "There seems to be more positive attitudes in many cases than what we've had in a long time. We're seeing an upswing, and it's more positive than we've seen in years."
Just as he was speaking, Donald Myers approached. Myers is the executive director of the Ohio Mid-Eastern Governments Association (OMEGA), a quasi-government group affiliated with the Appalachian Regional Commission, which promotes economic development in the 13 Appalachian states.
"Make sure you come by and talk to me before you leave," he said, winking at Hileman. "Dale and I have some different perspectives. You see, he's a Republican, and I'm a Democrat."
Myers, whose organization oversees 10 of Ohio's eastern Appalachian counties, presented a starker outlook than Hileman. He reels off some of his own statistics. In Belmont County, near the West Virginia line, coal mining used to employ 6,000 people. Now it employs 750, he said. Three of the regions largest employers, Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp., Weirton Steel Corp. and Ormet Aluminum are all in bankruptcy or recently emerged from it, and have cut thousands of jobs in the area.
"We've got county governments that could go bankrupt if these business shut down," he said. "We have aging infrastructure. . . . We have a brain drain. . . . And I'm seeing a greater interest in this election this year.”
Myers said he thinks the economy and Iraq are equally on voters' minds this year and are essentially intertwined as one issue. Many people, he said, are asking what America accomplished by spending at least $160 billion on Iraq when the needs are so great here. The Bush administration, he noted, tried unsuccessfully to slash the Appalachian Regional Commission's $66 million budget, most of which goes for economic development and infrastructure improvements in historically economically depressed areas.
Congress restored the proposed Bush cuts. Myers said the people of this region are very patriotic, but many people question the Iraq expenditure, considering the facts that have emerged in recent months undercutting the administration’s rationale for war.
"People are starting to talk, saying 'do we need to be in Iraq' when we have so many needs here at home?" Myers said. "'Do we need to be spending $87 billion?'"
Engaging the Issue
George W. Bush won Ohio narrowly in 2000, beating Al Gore 50 percent to 46 percent. But the Ohio Poll suggests he's got a tough battle ahead. With more than 11 million people and 20 electoral votes, Ohio is one of the nation's mega-states and a crucial electoral battleground.
Kerry kicked off a three-day "Jobs First" tour in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and West Virginia, in late April. In his speeches he argued that the Bush administration's lax enforcement of liberalized trade laws—most of which Kerry himself supported—have hurt workers in states such as these.
Kerry singled out China, which he said was manipulating its currency, according to a story by Reuters. China’s strict peg of its currency against the dollar has long been a concern of American manufacturers who believe the Chinese yuan is undervalued. That allows China to sell products more cheaply in the U.S. market, they complain. Bush administration officials have raised the concern with Chinese officials, but so far to little avail.
In his speeches on the Jobs First tour, Kerry lambasted the administration, pointing out that 2.8 million manufacturing jobs have been lost on Bush’s watch. The senator accused the administration of ignoring crucial provisions that would allow the U.S. government to make complaints against China to the World Trade Organization. And some manufacturers have asked Bush to restrict imports of Chinese products such as clothes hangers and pipefittings, according to Reuters. The companies cite a provision in Beijing's entry in the WTO that gives its members the right to block some imports in response to a sudden surge of products on the domestic market. Bush has turned down the requests, saying the costs of pursuing the complaints would outweigh the potential gain.
Alternately, Bush has accused Kerry of isolationism. And even before Kerry landed in West Virginia to begin his jobs tour, Bush surrogates were attacking Kerry’s "anti-steel, anti-coal, and pro-Kyoto" record: "I understand Senator Kerry is going to come to Ohio and West Virginia on Monday to discuss his plan to grow the economy in the Ohio Valley," said Rep. Robert W. Ney, who represents Ohio's 18th Congressional District, encompassing the conservative parts of the southeastern Ohio. "However, I think the senator from Massachusetts is going to have to answer some very serious questions over the fact that his record in the Senate does not match his rhetoric on the campaign trail."
A week after Kerry's Jobs First tour, Bush traveled to Michigan and Ohio in a two-day "Yes, America Can" bus trip through industrial areas in both states.
The candidate who is more convincing in the debate over jobs and unemployment could very well win the election. And it is in places like Monroe and Morgan, in the rolling hills and mountains of southeastern Ohio, that the outcome of the 2004 presidential election could be decided.
washingtonpost.com videoegrapher Travis Fox and Reuters contributed to this report.
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