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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 346.30

-4.1%

4:00 PM EST

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To: t2 who wrote (15174)	5/15/2004 1:42:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95814

<<Goldman Sachs was also bearish on AMAT.>> Of the roughly 25 analysts that follow AMAT, we have definite information that GS and CSFB are "bearish" for 2H04 and 2005. There are more than likely others that feel the same way as well. This means of course that they won't be buyers of the stock, unless they want to "stock up" on "low price" shares for inventory so they can sell at some point in the future. At this point in time they are negative, trying to drive the price down so "they" can pick up cheap shares. As RtS has pointed out many times on the thread, we have been in a "distribution mode" since the middle of January where "institutions" have been selling more than buying. This is relatively easy to see by looking at volume/price patterns on many stocks. So far, institutions have not returned to the market in an "accumulation mode". Until they do, we're not going to have a sustained upward run in semi-equip(or many other stocks as well) stocks, but rather, we will be "sloshing around" in a trading range. We will just have to watch as we go forward to try and determine when the sentiment changes. Don

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