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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 342.47+1.6%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (15192)5/16/2004 12:00:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95735
 
<<So the only way for individuals to beat the house is to make a good guess about the fundamentals.>>

I would agree but with a proviso or two. Fundamentals will, I think, win out over a long term, but there can be many "ripples" over the shorter term. For instance, lets take the action of the last 17 weeks - 1/3 of a year. The future, in general, has been looking up while the stock prices have been going down. Let's take the example of earnings outlook change for the semi-equips for the last 17 weeks as shown in the table below. As you can see, for each individual stock, and at the bottom line, the earnings outlook is much better now than in January, but the stock prices are down. The follow on post will amplify on this statement.

-	     DATA FROM FIRST CALL
-	   1/16/04	   5/14/04
-	 EARNINGS EST	 EARNINGS EST	 EARNINGS CHG
SYMBOL	CURR YR	NEXT YR	CURR YR	NEXT YR	CURR YR	NEXT YR
AMAT	 0.51	 0.96	 0.79	 1.14	 0.28	 0.18
ASML	-0.33	 0.45	 0.61	 1.10	 0.94	 0.65
ASYT	-1.02	 0.57	 0.49	 0.53	 1.51	-0.04
ATMI	-0.17	 0.44	 0.72	 1.23	 0.89	 0.79
BRKS	 0.11	 1.18	 0.76	 1.47	 0.65	 0.29
CMOS	-0.23	 0.80	 0.12	 1.10	 0.35	 0.30
COHU	 0.01	 0.57	 0.90	 1.40	 0.89	 0.83
CYMI	-0.31	 0.96	 1.56	 2.59	 1.87	 1.63
DPMI	-2.58	 0.49	-2.43	 0.21	 0.15	-0.28
EGLS	-1.89	-1.00	-0.43	 0.12	 1.46	 1.12
FSII	-0.25	 0.41	-0.14	 0.50	 0.11	 0.09
HELX	-0.10	 0.47	 0.99	 1.37	 1.09	 0.90
KLAC	 0.93	 1.86	 1.18	 2.46	 0.25	 0.60
KLIC	 0.75	 1.48	 1.33	 1.40	 0.58	-0.08
LRCX	 0.34	 1.10	 0.51	 1.64	 0.17	 0.54
LTXX	-0.22	 0.71	 0.02	 1.02	 0.24	 0.31
MTSN	-0.41	 0.36	 0.65	 1.23	 1.06	 0.87
NVLS	 0.22	 0.83	 0.97	 1.57	 0.75	 0.74
PHTN	 0.68	 1.27	 0.88	 1.74	 0.20	 0.47
PLAB	 0.58	 1.07	 0.64	 1.10	 0.06	 0.03
SMTL	 0.25	 0.68	 0.42	 1.10	 0.17	 0.42
TER	-0.59	 0.54	 1.43	 1.78	 2.02	 1.24
UTEK	 0.20	 0.76	 0.45	 1.05	 0.25	 0.29
VECO	 0.11	 0.66	 0.78	 1.49	 0.67	 0.83
WFR	 0.50	 0.61	 0.74	 0.90	 0.24	 0.29
TOTAL	-2.91	18.23	13.94	31.24	16.85	13.01
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