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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 342.47+1.6%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (15194)5/16/2004 12:53:57 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 95735
 
Hi Don

I started to save some of your tables back about 9/2000.
Here is the link I saved
Message 14442870 


       9/15/00 9/22/00		NEXT	SUM	LONG	
	CLOSE	CLOSE	PERCENT	YEAR	2 YR	TERM	
SYMBOL	PRICE	PRICE	CHANGE	 PE	EARN	GROWTH	PE/G
LTXX	21.81	20.63	  -5	  9	3.80	 35	0.26
ASYT	21.00	22.00	   5	  8	4.91	 27	0.31
CYMI	37.13	32.53	 -12	 11	4.93	 36	0.32
GSNX	17.00	14.25	 -16	  8	2.96	 25	0.34
TGAL	 4.19	 3.88	  -7	  7	0.51	 20	0.34
KLIC	14.63	14.44	  -1	  6	4.34	 18	0.35
COHU	18.00	16.19	 -10	  7	4.26	 20	0.35
TER	51.88	39.00	 -25	  9	7.23	 25	0.36
CMOS	43.88	35.88	 -18	 10	6.98	 24	0.40
MTSN	18.97	16.25	 -14	 10	2.94	 25	0.42
LRCX	23.94	23.31	  -3	 10	4.44	 22	0.45
HELX	36.44	31.13	 -15	 11	4.59	 25	0.45
EGLS	20.44	17.88	 -13	  9	4.52	 18	0.48
ATMI	24.50	23.34	  -5	 12	3.22	 24	0.48
FSII	15.88	14.50	  -9	 12	1.21	 23	0.53
PRIA	26.38	22.38	 -15	 17	2.03	 28	0.61
DPMI	64.88	64.00	  -1	 15	7.14	 22	0.66
BRKS	42.63	38.00	 -11	 16	4.26	 24	0.68
IMSC	16.88	15.50	  -8	 14	2.21	 20	0.69
NVLS	55.06	52.75	  -4	 19	5.32	 28	0.69
KLAC	49.88	43.38	 -13	 19	4.86	 25	0.74
SVGI	25.25	23.94	  -5	 13	3.12	 17	0.75
UTEK	17.13	17.13	   0	 22	0.97	 28	0.81
PLAB	24.00	24.25	   1	 17	2.33	 21	0.81
AMAT	73.13	70.00	  -4	 21	5.94	 25	0.82
SMTL	12.50	13.88	  11	 13	1.98	 15	0.85
NANO	45.00	52.00	  16	 31	2.60	 33	0.96
PHTN	45.00	49.53	  10	 32	2.74	 30	1.06
ASML	35.00	32.63	  -7	 27	2.02	 23	1.16
VECO	99.88	90.25	 -10	 32	4.16	 24	1.33
WFR	15.63	14.25	  -9	 30    -0.29	 20	1.52
SFAM	13.94	13.13	  -6	       -0.13	 21	
CFMT	 9.69	 8.50	 -12	       -2.48		
TOTAL 1041.55  970.71	  -7				
SOX-X  974.59  926.53	  -5				
COMPQX3835.23 3803.76	  -1

I took a look at the numbers and it struck me that the PEGs and PEs were about the same as they are now!

If I recall, we here were saying the fundamentals were out of whack with the stock prices. I believe, from memory, LRCX got down to about $15 in the fall of 2000 with a tiny PEG. I added to my position there. We got a huge counter trend rally that gave me a 64% gain on that buy so I sold the shares (keeping a much larger core position of course). I remember at the top of that rally we all felt that prices were once again reflecting reality... we were wrong as the worst of the bear where LRCX and many others saw massive losses as the companies had to downsize and write off severance packages.

I worry we are again saying the same thing... it is always good for us longs to worry... but maybe we can learn as we go? Many here were saying how smart I was to have liked Agilent in the low teens when it was approaching high $30's... but I too liked the stock and only took profits at low $30's... so I was too exuberant and missed a good opportunity so I don't have as much funds now to buy the shares back as I'd like. (To control my risk, I often don't buy back shares "in the middle of the range" unless I managed to sell some at higher levels to generate the cash to buy with... )

I wonder if we could somehow overlay your PE and PEG data with Gotfried's AMAT price chart and/or this price vs rolling EPS chart chart.bigcharts.com
from the rolling EPS chart, it sure looks to me like Cary's scenario into 2006 or 2007 is a good choice and we are just "undulating" our way up to $40 or more on AMAT in the years ahead.

Thanks for all your tables!
Cheers!
Kirk
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