Kirk, you have brought up some interesting data in an interesting time period. As you point out, there are some similarities during that period compared to today - I also think there are also some big differences.
Let me start by saying that in the fall of 2000, we were coming down the backside of a "huge bubble" - as you show in the table, earnings estimates had not caught up with that fact - they were terribly wrong as we all discovered in the coming months and years. As an example, let me pick selected dates and show earnings estimates for the Group as the months and years went forward.
7/27/00 41.37 60.79
10/19/00 42.20 60.75
2/22/01 34.62 45.86
6/28/01 11.57 19.82
11/1 01 -6.87 -1.91
3/21/02 -14.87 11.69
7/4/02 -10.85 16.15
11/14/02 -15.79 -1.25
6/19/03 -13.92 8.07
11/13/03 -7.07 14.40
1/17/04 -2.91 18.23
4/2/04 9.49 29.10
5/14/04 13.94 31.24
The first 2 entries show that earnings estimates did not change much throughout 2000 until after October. The NASDAQ peaked in March 2000 and started down - along with AMAT and most of the semi-equips - but not necessarily the semis, ie, INTC. In March, AMAT was at 57, in September AMAT was at 40. In March, INTC was at 68, in September INTC was at 67. Then in October, AMAT went to 26 and INTC went to 40.
In February 01 estimates were coming down, but still quite high - by June 01 they were continuing down - by Nov 01 both this year and next year estimates were negative. Then there was a rebound in estimates(later to be proved false) as shown by the entry for 7/4/02. By Nov 02 both this year and next year estimates were both negative again. June of 03 sees the beginning of recovery which continued through the rest of the year and on into the present as shown by last Friday's close.
Now all of this is pretty long winded, and maybe not of much value, but I don't think we are in the same situation now as we were "back then". I don't think we have an economy that is contracting now(coming down the back side of the bubble), but rather the economy is getting better, and should continue to do so in the future. I believe in Cary's scenario of a rising business environment going forward into 2006/2007.
<<it sure looks to me like Cary's scenario into 2006 or 2007 is a good choice and we are just "undulating" our way up to $40 or more on AMAT in the years ahead.>>
I agree.
Don |
