Biogen Message Board - Msg: 20135328

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 176.32

-0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1548)	5/16/2004 9:25:50 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1686

GS: Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2004E $1.34, 2005E $1.70 Outperform/Neutral (BIIB) $58.48 During a GS call, our guest gastroenterologist was optimistic about the potential of Antegren in Crohn's Disease (CD). He expects positive P3 data at DDW, including (1) subgroup analysis of the induction study showing efficacy (2) sustained response with maintenance therapy. These data should increase investor focus of Antegren in CD ($0.5B potential). Assuming positive results from another Phase III trial, FDA filing is expected in '05 & approval in '05/06. We expect filing of the multiple sclerosis (MS) indication in mid-04 & approval in H1/05 w/ $1B potential ($0.60 in EPS). At DDW, there are early but positive data on Humira & anti-IL12 in CD, but they lag Antegren by about 2 years. We maintain BIIB as Outperform on earnings acceleration from potential launch of Antegren in '05 and data from 4 Phase III trials (combined potential of $2B). BIIB shares are at 44X our '04 EPS or PEG of 2.2 vs 39X and 1.9 PEG for the group. The risks are slower sales, development failures, manufacturing, reimbursement & generics. Our coverage view is Neutral

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