May 12, 2004
Polling, Prognostication, and Perfidy
Peter Fusco
John Zogby (of Zogby International) and I went to high school together. It was an all boys Catholic school taught (some would say run) by the Xaverian Brothers. I remember him as an articulate, intelligent guy, a brown-nose around the brothers, but a decent guy nonetheless. Through smarts and hard work he has attained a kind of political stardom as head of one of the country’s leading polling institutions. But, like many who become centered in the limelight too quickly, John has apparently been blinded by it.
Newsmax.com reported today (5/11/04) Zogby’s prediction that John Kerry would win the election this fall. I take no issue with John’s right to prognosticate, but I do when he has so little to go on. According to Newsmax, “The reasons Zogby gives [are]: ‘His [Bush’s] latest poll shows poor numbers for an incumbent. Few undecided voters remain. Voters cite the economy as the top issue’ (and the media keep crying gloom and doom despite the Clintonesque 5.6 percent jobless rate). ‘Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer’."
It is true, Bush’s latest numbers are disastrous, but Kerry’s are equally bad and stagnant. It is also true that in politics there is a difference between those who are “undecided” and those who are “persuadable”. Evidently John missed that class where “persuadables” were discussed.
He is also correct in stating that Americans cite the economy as their top issue, but it is leftist arrogance run amok to assume the American people are, and will remain too stupid to understand the economic numbers reflect an economy busting out all over. And, the assessment that “Kerry is a good closer” comes from where? What statistical model did Zogby use to make that claim? Kerry’s only foray into politics has been in the most liberal state in the Northeast. One could run a monkey on the Democrat ticket in Massachusetts and he would win. If Kerry could not close in that state, he couldn’t sell shoes.
That John so blithely goes out on such a professional limb this far out in the campaign is stunning and not a little suspicious. No other pollster (so far) has attempted to call the election. What, if anything can he gain from such a pronouncement if not to curry favor with the left, and possibly the Kerry administration if one comes into being? And who would that favor be for if not John himself?
The probable answer to that question is Dr. James Zogby, John’s brother, the founder and president of the Arab American Institute, and an outspoken defender of the Palestinian cause. It should then come as no surprise that Dr. James Zogby, according to his official biography, is a close associate of not only Bill Clinton (he appears in a photograph with the beaming ex-President on the Arab American Institute’s web site aaiusa.org, but was named by Al Gore “to lead Builders for Peace, a private sector committee to promote U.S. business investment in the West Bank and Gaza.”
Again according to his official biography, “Dr. Zogby has also been personally active in U.S. politics for many years. Most recently, Zogby was elected a co-convener of the National Democratic Ethnic Coordinating Committee (NDECC), an umbrella organization of Democratic Party leaders of European and Mediterranean descent.” (Not Americans of Italian descent I can tell you!)
Now, I may not know a great deal about what the Arab American Institute actually does, although I have seen Dr. Zogby on television taking a decidedly anti-Israel position on affairs in the Middle East, but I am very familiar with the nature of ethnic familial relationships in my home town of Utica, New York. Family is everything. Brothers help brothers without any question whatsoever. In fact, so homogenous are family ties, rarely does one find a split within ethnic Utica families when it comes to political party affiliation. It is just the nature of the Utica beast.
What this comes down to is a question of John Zogby’s motive for predicting Kerry the winner in the fall when he is going by virtually the same numbers as all the rest of the pollsters in the country, pollsters who would not, at this juncture remotely entertain similar outbursts. It says something about Zogby’s professionalism, his objectivity, and yes, his figures, percentages, methodology, formulae, and reasons for risking what is left of his good name as a national pollster.
There is the larger issue however. For the head of a polling outfit to make an attempt to influence the election by claiming, however indirectly, that the outcome is a fait accompli undermines the system. It is what professional pollsters should, I imagine, not do, unless of course their agenda is buried within their statistics. And if that is the case, it is well for the actual voting public to put John Zogby’s prediction away with the rest of the left’s desperate attempts to raise John Kerry to the level of viable candidate.
Here’s my prediction: John Zogby will lose…his credibility.
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