Jon:
Let me offer another data point. (things that I
know is happening around me). You are right demand for
Java programmers exceeds supply. I been getting cold
calls from headhunters and e-mail solicitation for Java
programming position even thought I am not a software
engineer by trade (I am a chip designer, who happens to be
pretty good in programming) at all. I have a little bit of
experience in Java, but they still want to bring me in for
interviews; they are pretty desperate for people right now.
I don't know how you think. This indicates to me, there is a
shift of some kind.
Java allows programmers to be more productive.
A software developer in my company re-programmed an
application he developed in C++ in about 1/3 about the
time he spend on C++. That inherent advantage should
account for something.
- Chung
>>>>
Addi, it appears that SUNW is *already* doing a pretty good job of selling servers. I
beleive that they sell a better solution right now than the Wintel crowd where speed
and reliability are important.
I do not expect Java to result in revolutionary demand for servers, but perhaps some
evolutionary increase in demand. In most smaller organizations, servers are used only
for file storage, and they are not used much for their computing power. Wintel
computers are sufficient for this, and I see some room for growth for Sun there, if they
can start shifting the computing model.
In larger organizations, though, they are already used extensively in a client-server
database model. The advantages of Sun hold in that environment as well as they do
in a Java environment (perhaps even better). I do not expect Java to change much in
that environment, except perhaps to make it somewhat easier to produce client
software and (using NCs) perhaps easing the client administrative burden.
Java may also help move smaller organizations from a file-server model toward
client-server computing.
One thing that is critical is that there is a serious world-wide shortage of software
professionals. The U.S. could now (and probably will) open the floodgates to foreign
labor, and it would not help - my understanding is that India, for example, is now
pretty-much tapped-out for software engineers. Because computer science
enrollments are WAY down, I do not expect this situation to be remedied any time
soon.
Java MAY allow programmers to be more productive. However, inherent in any shift
toward Java is massive replacement of existing software, and Java is unlikely to be
THAT beneficial that that can be accomplished in the short order that many here
expect. The net effect over the next 5 years, should a serious shift toward Java be
undertaken, is going to be MUCH higher costs for software, at least temporarly.
The biggest stumbling block in the way of a massive shift to Java is that it may just
not be possible - the skilled bodies needed to do this massive re-write (and most
likely accompanied by re-design, not just rewrite) are simply not available.
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