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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (6399)5/17/2004 9:51:44 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
Patron:

Good comments.

The bet at this end is:

- second half of 2004 flops due to AWOL consumer. Deflationary forces re-emerge globally
- the buck tanks.
- gold soars
- semis continue to plunge like igneous rocks tossed into a pond.
airline stocks crash and burn (crummy balance sheets, continuing heavy losses, sky rocketing fuel prices, flying public "fed up" with airport security delays, massive global excess capacity, etc.)
financials (finally) get their just rewards, and crater, (led by FNM and COF perhaps?) as unemployed consumers toss "mcmansion" keys to the banks and real estate prices swoon.
- oil prices FALL (maybe even dramatically and perhaps before year end) due to reduced global demand.
- all indexes end the year at LOWER prices than seen at previous lows

Thank goodness I am an optimist. (g)

Best, Earlie
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