The Privateer's comments....
The Privateer has been around the PM tracks many a time...His work is well worth respecting.. Unfortunately, unless you are a subscriber, his thoughts are much less available that they were previously when in fact I used to quote his site often...
Clinton, his comments you picked up are about in line now with how most participants see what has happened, better expressed then most...My question is if the flight of capital is getting more to cash when does that translate to a bull market again in commodities a la the late 1970s...?
For the record I am beginning to believe all the parallel drawing between the 70's and now is way over done....These times are different. …markets have matured, there will be the unexpected differences.....
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"With the growing apprehension, which has now become certainty, that the Fed is on the verge of raising official US rates, and with the resultant LEAP in rates on Treasury debt (especially Treasury debt of one year plus maturity), a huge hole has appeared in the value of US bond and stock portfolios. This has led to capital repatriation. But a far more potent aspect of the anticipation of higher US rates has been...this movement, this unwinding of the "carry trade", which is pushing the US Dollar up on the forex markets.
The present Dollar advance is the VERY last echo of the US bubble markets, fuelled as it is by the accelerating unraveling of all the other ones. The flight of capital is getting closer and closer to "cash"... PRECISELY what happened to the dollar in the late 1970s." |
