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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 221.02+6.4%Jan 13 3:59 PM EST
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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (121754)5/18/2004 11:06:20 AM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Dear Pravin:

There is no slip! Hector Ruiz said production of 90nm CPUs will start in April and guess what, 90nm production wafers started running in April. Add 13 weeks and you get July for when the first are packaged, tested and shipped. That is Q3. Now this initial production is a few wafer pods a day. When the dies yield and bins check out, this begins to increase. That is called a ramp. So how many good CPUs are made from 100 or so wafers a week? At 50% yield, there should be 12,500 good 118mm2 dies per 100 wafers. 10 weeks gets you 125K CPUs, but it probably take 4 to 5 weeks of that to wend their way through to being in customer's hands, so Q3 will ship 60 to 75K.

Since by August, they will know how profitable 90nm production is. If it is very good, they could ramp to 1,000 wafers a week and get 500K to be shipped in Q4 plus 90nm 512K. If that works, they could completely switch to 90nm by Q1 05 including 90nm 256K. That takes us to 5M in Q1 and 10M in Q2. Of course dual core is supposed to start in Q2 for Q3 shipments. And 104W would be enough to cover dual core 90nm Opterons in the 3GHz range.

It all depends on volume and latency. Rocket lots will provide 90nm samples by the end of this month or early June. The results of this would probably begin the creep up (ramp) in June. AMD has done 100% switchovers in less than 12 months.

Pete
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