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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: isopatch who started this subject5/18/2004 11:09:11 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (2) of 108759
 
Are higher oil prices really inflationary?! Consider this:

<What will be the impact of higher oil prices? Oil prices remain near record levels following the car bombing in Iraq on concerns supply will be disrupted amidst continued strong global demand. US refineries are operating at 96% capacity. The average price of gas is up $.38 since the end of last year. Every penny rise in the price of gas drains $1.3 billion from consumer cash flow. With the demand for oil inelastic, one has to wonder how consumer spending will be affected. One also has to wonder how the global economy will be impacted.>

bonds-online.com

I don't think we have to wonder. It reduces consumer purchasing power significantly at a time when real wages have been in decline for years. Inflation is not sustainable without rising wages.

While the ST effect is to spur inflation numbers for most of this year, the LT effect is deflationary by draining demand from the segment of the economy that accounts for about 60% of aggregate economic demand.

Isopatch
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