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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (287504)5/18/2004 11:36:21 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
but so far I'm hitting 4 to 1 odds against me

I don't know what the theory is, but getting tails twice at a coin toss has 1 in 4 probability (not "odds"), and that's hardly impossible. You can observe the same banality of 1:4 in couples that have two baby girls in a row.

Two comments I could make here:
(1) if you think your chances of being right in your investments is no better than the toss of a coin, you should probably not be here
(2) even if you have a theory that allows you to be right every day for a month, I cannot see how that proves that option sellers move the market in whatever direction they want
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