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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 330.35+0.5%Jan 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (15229)5/18/2004 5:09:18 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95708
 
<<Too much good news from Agilent yesterday ... the market seems to have choked on it.>>

For most stocks, that has been the usual action, both on 1st CY quarter earnings releases and 2nd quarter earnings releases. At first a good reaction and then a "take down". The market hasn't been able to find anything it likes.

The very simple table below sort of summarizes the action for the Group since the first of the year.

-	  #	 GROUP	 PCT
- DATE	WEEKS	 PRICE	 CHGE
1/2/04		575.92
1/16/04	  2	640.69	  11
2/6/04	  3	570.81	 -11
4/2/04	  8	551.75	  -3
4/16/04	  2	494.58	 -10
5/14/04	  4	443.16	 -10

During the 1st 2 weeks of the year, the Group went up 11 percent. Then when the peak of the earnings hit during the last part of January(very good earnings), the Group from 1/16 to 2/6(3 wks) was down 11 percent.

Then during the next 8 weeks from 2/3 to 4/2, the Group only lost 3 percent. Now we hit the earnings season again.

Unlike in January when the Group was up 11 percent waiting for the earnings announcements, the Group was down 10 percent waiting for the earnings announcements from 4/2 to 4/16. Also, after another dose of good earnings announcements in the last part of April, the next 4 weeks shows another 10 percent sell off.

To paraphrase an old saying - "No good earnings report shall go unpunished".:-)

I am curious as to how AMAT will react tomorrow. After a "stellar" report tonight, the stock bounced up from the closing price of 18.87 to as high as 19.20 and then it went as low as 18.70. As I write this note, it is trading around 19. Who knows where it will trade tomorrow?

Don
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