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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: MCsweet who wrote (19219)	5/19/2004 12:28:48 AM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) of 78486

MC, thank you for the message. The model did alright by giving a "sell-off" signal on 4/23/2004. Since then all indices down around 5-10%. My portfolio was break even. While we are still on the big downtrend, my other short-term timing model (not as accurate as the "market top" model mentioned above and I am still fine-tuning it) indicated the market is accumulating energy for a bounce. and it can happen as early as tomorrow. I have covered most short positions. The “market top” model will measure the strength of the rally, and likely give another sell signal later. There is a small chance that the bounce is very strong and the model gives a “reversal of downtrend” signal, however the model will signal it way before the market reaches new high. The 3-5% sell-off in the week after 4/23 was likely just a warning shot. The real bottom is usually built when “panic selling” occurs. There will likely be a day that DJIA goes down 250 points and NASDAQ goes down 75 points. Good luck in the tough 2004! Steve168

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