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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (50051)5/19/2004 3:18:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
<On another front, Stratfor has now officially pronounced that China may yet again come apart, imminently, as dramatic as the overthrow of the Party and slipping of the nation into absolute chaos.

Odd thing, I am close to the supposed storm center, and yet I see not much to indicate the validity of Stratfor's spin on facts.>

Maybe the war on Taiwan is intended to rally the country and take the public mind away from problems on the home front. Such a war makes no sense to me. But it does if it helps maintain those in power in China in power.

Taiwan can't leave China any more than New Zealand can leave Australia and the USA. We are too small and too trade dependent and have too much in common. Although NZ became fully independent a century ago [from Australia] and half a century ago from Britain [bit by bit], there have also been proceedings to reintegrate with Oz in various respects.

China doesn't need to do anything to keep Taiwan close; Taiwan has been getting closer and closer over the past decade. China's bosses know that, so they are obviously motivated by something more akin to megalomania.

I have no idea why China should fly apart though, or suffer an economic contraction. It looks pretty good to me. What's Stratfor's idea?

China is doing well, though their vaunted engineers built some bad roads whose foundations collapsed soon after opening, and building construction looks antediluvial. Maybe truck loads aren't controlled and over-loaded trucks crushed the roads.

Mqurice
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