Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 256.41

+1.1%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (9839)	5/19/2004 10:01:09 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) of 25522

I listened to the replay of the conference call, yesterday, and read the Merril Lynch research report, this morning. Merrill forecasts $1.25 EPS for CY05. My model calls for $2.50 EPS in CY07 and a peak price in CY06 of $50. Merrill's model calls for peak Q sales of $2.5B in Q4 FY05 and a small decline to $2.3B the following quarter (last modelled). Merrill has peak net margin in Q4 FY05 at ~23% which, I believe, matches the 2000 peak. AMAT beat expectations for the current Q and for next Q forecasts. Analysts were not that interested because they are all looking for the cycle peak and AMAT doesn't give guidance beyond next quarter. AMAT did say there are 30 300mm fabs being filled, now, 16 will continue into 2005, and 19 new 300m shells will start filling or be available to start in 2005. The best model for the collective wisdom about the semi industry is the voyage of Columbus. It is moving toward rich rewards, but, at any time, it might fall off the edge.

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