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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 259.15+1.1%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9842)5/19/2004 4:29:26 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
Cary,

Merrill forecasts $1.25 EPS for CY05. My model calls for $2.50 EPS in CY07 and a peak price in CY06 of $50.

You seem to be focusing more LT and Merrill ST. Do you have an EPS forecast for CY05 and 06 and does Merrill have one for CY06 and 07? At what point do you envision the 10 analysts who currently have hold ratings on AMAT moving over to buy ratings instead?

The best model for the collective wisdom about the semi industry is the voyage of Columbus. It is moving toward rich rewards, but, at any time, it might fall off the edge.

The voyage of AMAT has already been immensely enriching for long-term investors. Do you get the sense that the collective wisdom of the street is either not focusing on the long term, or that it thinks that the best years of the journey lie behind it instead of ahead?

As for the "edge", are you saying there are no more sharp edges as there were in the past, or simply that the edge is further away than it appears to most observers? What are the pricing implications (for AMAT shares) of diminishing cyclicality? Might it be useful perhaps to look at other industries, such as the housing industry or HDD industry, that have gone through or may be going through a similar transition toward greater stability?

Sam
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